Sunday, December 4, 2016

Why Trump punches China in nose (Taiwan)

Why Trump punches China in the nose (Taiwan)

OK, let's talk globally about Trump and Hillary (not just on this particular fact with Taiwan). Choosing between Trump and Hillary, for the US and the most probable all world, was like choosing between the Devil and the Hell. Hillary would mean at least a regional nuclear war in next months or years, while Trump means the corporation hegemony against (the most) people on the planet. But related to a nuclear war, at least Trump is an unknown posibility, not a certain one like Hillary. This is the primary reason for, the most US people voted for Trump (actually, voting for Trump is like voting against [nuclear war] Hillary).

Now, related to this particular fact (Taiwan), it's normal that this "move" to be against the old US diplomacy in relation with China, but on the other side, this new situation is a new way of negotiation with China, because it creates tensions very fast. It's very probable for these tensions to escalade very fast in next future, maybe so high that it will put US and China on the same balance if we bring in attention the South China Sea conflict...

That "move" isn't strange for diplomacy and it's more specific for the business area when you want to get concessions...

In the worst case scenario, what Trump did could maximum escalade after months or years into a regional war between China and Taiwan, even if I tend to believe there the Chinese diplomacy will try to "occupy" the Taiwan in not a too far way than did Russia with Crimeea. And guess what can happen then: more US military presence in South China Sea,  also, the most probable from allies like NATO, South Korea and Japan, economic sanctions against China, etc.

Anyway, if the events will go so far to a similar scenario, then both sides (US & China) will win: China get's Taiwan and US the domination of South China Sea (commerce routes). I would say US will get a lot more advantages for long term, in their attempt to stop the China's economic growth and the consolidation of its economical and political relations with other countries that have maritime routes via South China Sea.

The next challenges for US will be to restrain the diplomacy between China and Russia, and to prevent the EU countries to create strong economic relations with Russia, because if the Eurasia will become a developed economic union, then the US has all chances to become an isolated area, and (US) will be forced to strengthen more the relations with Canada, Mexico and the most probable with the most countries from the South American continent.

Maybe we are the witnesses of a new world reshape...